Because, honestly, why the hell not. I'm going to do it a little differently this time, though. I'm going to make five picks for each stage and jersey, and give a point value to each them, 5 through 1. We'll then see how many points I end up with. With 21 stages and 4 jerseys, that's 125 possible points. I think getting even a third of those would be pretty impressive. Let's get to it.

Stage 1

This TTT is relatively short (16.5 km) and is pancake flat. I haven't found a map that shows the streets of Seville that will be used, but I imagine the course is largely straight as well, leaving this one for the powerhouses and not the technicians. Being run at night under streetlights should provide a neat viewer spectacle, though I hope no one gets hurt.

5 point pick - Team HTC-Columbia They're probably bringing the nine fastest guys to the race. Bak, Cav, Eisel, Goss, Siutsou, and van Garderen finish together with the best time. Or maybe all nine finish together, like at last year's Giro.

4 point pick - Liquigas-Doimo I'm pretty sure they're the only team with multiple TTT wins this season, though this course doesn't really compare to the Giro TTT course. The lack of Wiggins on Sky's squad and the presence of Bennati, Kreuziger, Nibali, Sabatini, and Santaromita, all of whom can sprint (it's a short course) or TT well makes them solid favorites. They won the TTT that kicked off the 2008 Vuelta, so it's not as if success in Spain is foreign to the Italians.

3 point pick - Garmin-Transitions The usual suspects are there - Danielson, Vandevelde (though he's probably not 100%), Zabriskie, Millar, Dean and Farrar can probably contribute some watts in a short course like this one. I'd feel better about their chances with a fully healthy Vandevelde.

2 points pick - Team Sky They're a trendy pick for any TTT, but no Wiggins, no Boasson Hagen, no Henderson or Sutton for a power sprinter type...the best engine they're bringing probably belongs to Juan Antonio Flecha, hardly an intimidating name in the TT's. But they know how to ride this discipline, there's no doubting that.

1 point pick - Team Saxo Bank They're bringing Cancellara AND Larsson, so maybe  they probably should be above Team Sky in my rundown. But it takes more than two guys to win a TTT, and with the brothers Schleck (certainly not known as TT'ers), Stuart O'Grady and a few sprinters rounding out the squad, there may not be enough power there.

Stage 2

This stage could go either way in terms of being a sprint stage or a breakaway, but with time gaps probably relatively small after the TTT, I have a feeling that the race leader's team will want the field together as much as the teams of the sprinters will. This stage, as well as the next two, takes place in Andalusia, so we're sure to see an Andalucia-Cajasur rider in the breakaway, probably nabbing the first mountains jersey. Two cat-3's on course on here, and while the Alto de Ronda will probably break the field up a tiny bit, the 50 some km of descending and flats that follow its summit will probably bring the field together.

5 point pick - Mark Cavendish The Manx Missile is hitting his best form now, and I think he'll drag his bones across the Ronda just fine. If he's with the leaders at the finish, really, who can stand in his way.

4 point pick - Thor Hushovd Even if some of the sprinters get left behind, Hushovd is the one I'm most sure will get over the Ronda with no troubles.

3 point pick - Tyler Farrar We don't really know what kind of form Farrar's on. He'd probably beat Hushovd in a two-up drag race, but it probably won't come to that.

2 point pick - Alessandro Petacchi

1 point pick - Grega Bole On the extreme off chance that all the sprinters get left behind, Bole's a good man to pack a finishing kick from a group of 40 or 50 that finishes together

Stage 3

Well, this is certainly not a sprinter's stage. Two visits to the category-1 Puerto de Leon will break the field up nicely, as will the ~25km of descending between the second ascent and the finish.

5 point pick - Xavier Tondo I'm actually not sure how well Tondo handles a descent, but the Leon looks like a good climb for his talents, and you have to be a brutally bad descender to give up any more than about a minute in the amount of distance present on this stage to descend.

4 point pick - David Arroyo It's a good profile for Arroyo's skills, but he comes into the Vuelta a marked man, and not a rider who will be given much, if any rope. However, if he can climb with the aces, who catch the breakaway, and then bomb the descent, the red jersey will probably be his. Which would be a likelier scenario in, say, stage 18 than stage 3, but still.

3 point pick - Denis Menchov While there may be time gaps on this stage among the aces, it's probably more likely that if there are, they'll come behind the stage winner than come about as they try for the stage win

2 point pick - Frank Schleck For much the same reasons

1 point pick - Gustavo Cesar Mosquera won't get away, but his lieutenant might

Stage 4

A nice, hilly stage that has breakaway written all over it. We'll certainly see Andalucia-Cajasur represented again, and if they have a decent TTT there's a small chance they could take the race lead with the right man away on this stage.

5 point pick - Jose Angel Gomez Marchante Easily the strongest rider on the Andalucia-Cajasur squad, he's the likeliest to benefit from making the break today. He's no overall threat, though, so no one should much mind if he slips away.

4 point pick - Rafael Valls The plucky young Spaniard showed well in a breakaway in the Tour de France, and could do the same here.

3 point pick - Ben Swift Another rider for a team with no overall aspirations, Swift could easily find himself the strongest sprinter in the day's escape group

2 point pick - Greg Van Avermaet The Belgian won the points title in the Vuelta two years ago by making break after break on stages like this. He's not a terrific sprinter, but he packs a kick decent enough to potentially beat out breakaway maters with other strengths

1 point pick - Amets Txurruka It's likely Euskaltel will save their bullets for later in the race, but I have to give a nod to my personal favorite breakaway firebug

Stage 5

This stage is classified as totally flat, though it actually undulates a bit. It's still likely the sprinters will have their fun, and the crosswinds possible on the exposed roads in Murcia could provide for some time gaps.

5 point pick - Mark Cavendish

4 point pick - Tyler Farrar

3 point pick - Wouter Weylandt An often forgotten fast man, but he's got stage wins at both the Vuelta and the Giro to his credit

2 point pick - Alessandro Petacchi

1 point pick - Thor Hushovd

Stage 6

There's one little climb in this course, the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. A favorite training ride of Alejandro Valverde's, it's a good bet that the Caisse d'Epargne team will show up on this day.

5 point pick - Thor Hushovd Hushovd will get over the Cresta del Gallo just fine, and if he's present in a 40 or 50 strong group together at the finish, he should be the best sprinter there

4 point pick - Luis Leon Sanchez The Caisse d'Epargne team leader in Valverde's stead grew up near where the stage ends. He should know the Cresta del Gallo well and be able, should he chooses, to take an aggressive ride on it to try to fly the Caisse d'Epargne flag

3 point pick - Enrico Gasparotto Fits the bill well of a "sprinter who can climb ok"

2 point pick - Manuel Cardoso The Footon team's one ProTour-level win this season came from Cardoso on a stage similar to this one in profile, way back at the Tour Down Under

1 point pick - Mark Cavendish It's possible this one comes down to a bunch finish, but I don't think it's terribly likely

Stage 7

This one's just about as flat as a stage can get. One tiny little cat-3 on course, which won't bother anyone. The usual suspects will be out to play.

5 point pick - Mark Cavendish

4 point pick - Tyler Farrar

3 point pick - Alessandro Petacchi

2 point pick - Thor Hushovd

1 point pick - Allan Davis



I'm getting sleepy I'll finish this tomorrow