He’s been second in four Grand Tours, yet has only taken on small stage race victory in the past; Andy Schleck’s sole success in the Route du Sud is one of the reasons why some of cycling’s top former riders believe that he should make a concerted effort to win the next Giro d’Italia.
The Luxembourg rider initially ruled out riding the race, knowing that it could leave him fatigued for the Tour de France, but a route emphasising time trial prowess and limiting uphill finishes to three stages mean that the Tour will be very difficult for him to win. The Giro seems more suited to his climbing abilities; because of this, several top names are clear in telling La Gazzetta dello Sport that he should focus on the Italian race.
“Better first in the Giro than second in the Tour. A victory in a big stage race gives glory and makes history,” said Felice Gimondi, a three time Giro champion who is one of the few riders to win all three Grand Tours.
“As our elders say, Andy could put hay on the farm and then work more quietly, without the obsession of being a champion imperfect, an eternal second. And then, as Andy in the Giro would become more mature, he would become older in the Tour. In 2013 the balance of power could finally change for him. Indeed, the more I think about it, the more convinced I am: Andy should come to the Giro.”
Jan Ullrich’s career shows that once a rider becomes used to finishing second in major races, it’s difficult to come back from that. He was second in the 1996 Tour de France, his debut, won in 1997, but never again topped the podium. He finished as runner-up four more times, and most accept that he eventually settled into the role of gallant challenger rather than truly believing he could win.
Raymond Poulidor is another rider who found it difficult to break the pattern and take a Grand Tour victory, with the Frenchman netting second in the Tour on three occasions, and third five times.
The experts consulted by the Italian paper are clear that he needs to start winning, and that this will be more important for his long-term career than finishing on the podium again in the Tour.
“The Giro is the perfect race for Andy,” said Franceso Moser, Giro winner ahead of Laurent Fignon in 1984. “Two reasonable time trials, a team time trial in which he can hold the wheel of his team-mates and uphill finishes that favour him.
The 1990 race winner Gianni Bugno agrees. “The Giro, compared to the Tour, not only has a more varied course, but is also a route that is more imaginative and more surprising, tougher and less predictable. For Andy, the Giro could be more important than you could imagine…”
Both warn that to try to win both races would be very tough, as Alberto Contador found out this year. They believe that not only does the Tour route not suit him, but also that the proximity of the two races are such that it would give him little chance to recover.
That said, the 2012 Giro is regarded as a more humane one that those of recent years, both in terms of stage difficulties and also transfers to and from team hotels.
“If Andy came, it would be good for him and for the Giro,” said Giuseppe Saronni. “Technically, the Giro is superior to the Tour, starting with the route. And the competition is still important. But you have to understand what the rider wants, as a motivation, as a challenge.”
One Giro winner who has direct experience of racing against Schleck in the race is convinced he can do it. Gilberto Simoni, who triumphed in 2001 and 2003, remembers the Luxembourg rider’s debut in a Grand Tour, when he started as a fresh-faced kid but nearly won.
“He was just a boy and for more than two weeks he was not considered to be fighting for the pink jersey because he was too young, without any experience,” he remembers. “Instead we had to change our minds, but it was too late. So much so that he finished second behind Di Luca, and I fourth.
“For Andy the 2012 Giro is an occasion, an opportunity, an objective. He must gamble. And winning the Giro would help him climb the leaderboard in the history of cycling.”
Paolo Savoldelli also agrees, saying that the route means that he can win the Giro but not the Tour. However he said that RadioShack-Nissan team manager Johan Bruyneel’s fixation on the Tour means that he is likely to do the French event; he believes this would be a tactical error.
What’s worth remembering is that Schleck is just 26 years of age. He has time on his side and, unless he can dramatically boost his time trial ability over the next few months, he and his team will need to weigh up what is best for his long-term career.
Unless they are convinced he can win the Tour de France, a more reasoned objective may be to take the Giro in 2012, then target the 2013 Tour with a better route and a real winner’s mentality. The danger is that another podium finish or less could see him become a new Poulidor rather than a future Tour champion.