Regarded by many as a big favourite for the Tour de France on the basis of his wins in Paris-Nice and the Tour de Romandie, Bradley Wiggins has said that he believes he’s on course to target success in the race, but that it would be an error to have any presumptions about the final outcome.
"As much as people say I'm a favourite, there's still a massive, long process to go through in that three weeks, as you saw last year. Anything can happen: crashes, illness,” he told Eurosport in a long video interview.
“But I think if I stay upright and I continue with what I’m doing for the next couple of months, and get the last bit right, then I’ll be in the ball park. I think on paper you could say I potentially could win it now, but there’s still a lot to do. It’s certainly not a foregone conclusion. There is a long way to go yet, and it is not going to be easy, that is for sure.”
Despite that caution, Wiggins has been arguably the most impressive of the Tour contenders this year. Looking at last year’s podium, the 2011 champion Cadel Evans has had a quieter early season than he did twelve months ago. He won Criterium International but had relatively anonymous performances in Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour de Romandie, two races he won in 2011.
Runner-up Andy Schleck’s palmares this season are completely lacking high points, while his brother Frank Schleck, third in 2011, is performing better thus far but hasn’t yet taken any victories. He was a late call up to the Giro d’Italia and risks being tired for the Tour de France.
The brothers will also be handicapped by a course favouring time trial specialists, into which category Evans and Wiggins slot.
Yet the latter refuses to rule them out. "Frank and Andy, you never discount them. I know they get a lot of stick and criticism because perhaps they are not where they should be in their preparations, but they're tried and tested,” he said. “They are the most consistent Tour de France performers, along with Cadel, in the past five or six years. And Andy's probably the biggest talent in cycling when he gets his act together."
"Cadel grinds it out, year in year out," said Wiggins. "Last year's winner, and he has to go in as the favourite. He's perhaps not had the same run as he did last year, but obviously things are different because he came off from winning the Tour last year.”
Wiggins’ early career showed no indications at all that he could be a Grand Tour contender. He was 123rd in the 2005 Giro, 124th in the 2006 Tour and 134th in the 2008 Giro. 2009 brought about a dramatic improvement, though, with 71st in the Giro being followed by fourth overall in the Tour de France.
He signed up to Team Sky as a leader in its bid to win the Tour, but didn’t perform in 2010, placing 24th overall. Wiggins said that he didn’t do things correctly that season, moving to a new team, dealing with a different structure, trying to replicate his preparation of 2009 and not reaching the race in anything like the same form.
“I just didn’t do the work. I thought I was doing the work, but perhaps not working in the right areas,” he said. He’s changed a lot since then and, with the help of coaches Shane Sutton and Tim Kerrison, believes he’s now in a position where he could push for the podium or better. July will show if that is indeed the case.