He’s held the race lead since his win in the prologue and has set a curious record along the way, but Fabian Cancellara accepts that his time in the Maillot Jaune could well be drawing to a close today. The big Swiss rider holds a seven second lead over Bradley Wiggins (Sky) and Sylvain Chavanel (Omega Pharma Quick Step), with Tejay Van Garderen (BMC Racing Team), Denis Menchov (Katusha), defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC Racing Team) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas Cannondale) all eighteen seconds or less behind.
Each of those could gain time on him on today’s tough finish and so, in all likelihood, he knows that there could be a new race leader this evening.
“I'm just going on and on to see how long I can hold on to this yellow jersey but, for sure, tomorrow the wind will change,” he said after yesterday’s stage. “It will be like it's coming from an entirely different direction. We're going uphill and it's going to be really, really hard. And I know already that it's going to be the end of my days in yellow.”
The stage will conclude atop the climb of La Planche des Belle Filles, which will feature for the first time ever in the Tour. It is likely to completely upend the general classification. While it’s just eight and a half kilometres in length, it rises from 483 metres to 1035 meters in that distance and features some very steep sections.
Former WorldTour pro Daniel Lloyd, who carried out a video preview of the stage, states that a portion of the climb near the finish line hits 22 percent.
Cancellara can use his brute strength to get over dragging climbs, but the gradient of the first category ascent will likely prove too much. If so, and if he loses significant time, the focus of the team will shift towards others in the RadioShack Nissan Squad.
Of those, Andréas Klöden is 19 seconds back, while Maxime Monfort and Haimar Zubeldia are 22 seconds back. Chris Horner and Frank Schleck are further adrift, with the American sitting one minute 29 seconds back and last year’s third-place finisher being two minutes 43 seconds down.
The latter was caught up in yesterday’s crash and while he was not too badly hurt, the delay he had in waiting for a bike meant that he ended up losing over two minutes.
Cancellara says it’s too soon to write him, and the team, off in terms of the general classification. “Fränk lost time but we'll go on like we have to go on, just like always. We have Andreas Klöden and we still have someone up there,” he said.
“Fränk lost all these minutes because of the crash today but I don't think that we should say, ‘Okay, it's over!' You can put a lot of other teams under pressure and maybe that can help us and put us in a better situation when the others are under pressure. When we come to the mountains and he's out there, something could work in our favour.”