As has been widely reported, Astanta's Grand Tour dominator, Alberto Contador, spent the early part of this week reckoning the Tour de France's stages in the Alps. After taking in the hardships awaiting the general classification hopefuls in both the Alps and Pyrenees, Contador is certain of one thing, the race should be decided in the latter part of the three weeks.
The Grand Boucle will hit the first mountains in the 2010 Tour de France with the category two summit finish to Rousses in the Jura Mountains in Stage 7, then arrive in the Alps proper for the following two stages. Stage 8 will finish again atop a climb at Morzine-Avoriaz, while Stage 9 will eschew a mountaintop finish but include two category one climbs, a category two, and a final hors category climb of the Col de Madeleine before descending the final 20 kilometers into Saint Jean de Maurienne.
Unsurprisingly, Alberto Contador's verdict of this Alpine Triptych is less than awed:
"In the stages in the Alps, we will see which riders are in shape, and those that are not will lose some time. The general classification will not be settled there though."
Again, unsurprisingly, Contador rates the stage to Morzine-Avoriaz as the toughest of the alpine stages: "I do not think that the differences will be very large. I think that a group of three or four riders will finish the stage together."
According to Contador, the real racing will begin in the Pyrenees. Stage 14's mountaintop finish on the category one ascent of Ax 3 Domaines should prove decisive, especially considering its placement immediately after the descent of the giant hors categorie ascent of the Port de Pailheres.
The next day, Stage 15, will include another hors categorie ascent right before the finish in the 1100 meters worth of climbing to the Port de Bales. From there, it's only 20 kilometers downhill to the finish. Stage 16 will be a difficult day, but not in anyway decisive. Two category one climbs and two hors categorie climbs will be negated by over 60 kilometers of descent and flat roads leading to the finish in Pau.
Stage 17, however, could well decide the Tour de France in 2010, and emphatically proves Contador's conclusion: "The Pyrenees will be much harder and more decisive. It is certainly where the winner will be determined." The stage starts in Pau and a category four climb, two category one climbs, and the final hors categorie climb of the Tourmalet later, should give us a good idea of who the 2010 Tour de France champion will be.