Jonathan Vaughters, the man behind the Garmin-Transitions team, has weighed in on how he thinks this year's Tour de France will play out. The American is a former teammate of seven-time Tour winner Lance Armstrong (RadioShack), and thinks that this year's edition of the race will come down the mountains, pure and simple.
In the past Armstrong began to wage war on his rivals well before the peloton would line up for the event. He and his manager Johan Bruyneel are two of the best in the business when it comes to deflecting pressure onto their opponents to gain a psychological advantage. It's a common occurrence in the sports world and can add to the drama, but some play that game much better than others.
Until now, the war of words leading up to the big event in July would stoke the fire for the fans as the anticipation would build. This year, things have gone a bit differently, and its likely Vaughters isn't the only one to have noticed.
"I don't think it [their rivalry] is going to have much effect," Vaughters told AFP Thursday, about the conflict that erupted between former teammates Alberto Contador (Astana) and Armstrong last year.
"Once they hit the mountains, assuming they both make it through stage three [with its cobbled sections], one of them is going to be better than the other. That's the way the race is going to play out.
"Lance is good at psychological warfare but Alberto showed last year that he's very much immune to any of that. So I don't think there's really anything one of them can do to the other except push the pedals harder.
"That's the only weapon either one of them have."
Contador will start this year's race with number 1 on his back as defending champion, and it will serve as a constant reminder to his rivals of the dominance he showed in 2009. The Spaniard has already proven that riding away from him in the mountains while he's on form is an unlikely scenario, and Vaughters believes the climbs will be what shapes the main storyline of the race.
"When it comes to mountains, tactics are not so much of a factor. It's just legs. It becomes a mano a mano," he explained.
"In the Pyrenees and steeper climbs in the Alps, these guys are going up at 18km/h. And at 18km/h there's very little draft [from the rider in front of you].
"The only thing a teammate can really do for you is hand you a water bottle, or cheer for you."
While Contador has proven he can win the race under pressure, he will still have to show up motivated and fit to take his third Tour crown.
"If Contador's the strongest rider on the Tour, he'll win the Tour...if he doesn't crash on stage three."