Currently just eight seconds ahead of Andy Schleck, Alberto Contador will have two goals on tomorrow’s final mountain stage to the top of the Col du Tourmalet. The less ambitious of those is to simply defend his lead, then rely on Saturday’s final time trial to Pauillac to eke out more time over his main rival.
The second, preferred option, is to retain yellow by winning atop the legendary 2115 metre, eighteen kilometre climb. Contador is yet to take a stage in this year’s Tour and if he does go on to win the race, he will – like all Tour champions – want to have a stage win to his credit too. It’s a matter of pride, and also something which underlines a rider’s superiority in the event.
More often than not, the victor in Paris will have also topped the podium along the way. The last Tour champion not to take a stage was Oscar Pereiro, the man who was crowned 2006 champion after Floyd Landis’ disqualification. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1990 and Greg LeMond’s final triumph in the race.
Interestingly, both Contador and Schleck believe the final climb will be far more decisive than the time trial. "On Thursday, we'll have a good fight. I need to still take time. Whoever is in yellow at the top will win the Tour,” said the latter, according to l’Equipe.
Contador also sees it as a crucial point of the race. “This is a very hard stage,” he said. “You can expect very large deviations, higher than in the time trial.”
Contador won last year’s race against the clock but this time round, the final test is a lot flatter. Consequently, his chances of topping the podium there are slimmer.
Of the two riders, Schleck is clearly the one who needs to hammer home any advantage tomorow as he is traditionally a weaker time trialist. In the concluding time trial in last year’s Tour, he conceded one minute 44 seconds to Contador in 40.5 kilometres. This year there is a longer, flatter test of 52 kilometres, and so the potential loss could be higher. That said, Contador doesn’t appear to be on the same form as he was twelve months ago, and Schleck is closer to him in the mountains. Could this point towards a closer time trial?
Contador believes that it does. “During the time trial, the wind will play an important role. If it is favorable, the gaps will not be very big. And also, Andy has improved since 2009.
“The time trial should favour me, but Andy has won the championship of his country against the clock.”
Schleck will remember back to the 2008 Tour de France, when Cadel Evans was widely expected to take serious time out of his then Saxo Bank team-mate Carlos Sastre and win the race. The Luxembourg rider will hope to take yellow back tomorrow and then use the golden tunic to drive himself to a similarly good performance, fending off the challenge of those behind.
Even though he said that he’s forgiven Contador for his controversial attack on Monday, he will hope to tap into any residual anger left from the incident. He also feels more confident about his abilities. “I am stronger than last year,” he stated.
If he misses out on the overall win, Schleck is still looking good for second overall in the race. He is one minute 52 seconds ahead of Samuel Sanchez (Euskaltel Euskadi) and two minutes five up on Denis Menchov (Rabobank), and should be able to fend both off. However if either has a spectacular day tomorrow and turns the tables on their younger rider, that could make things even more interesting come Saturday.
Weighing everything up, all indications are that tomorrow is going to be a scintillating stage indeed.