This weekend’s World Cyclocross Championships are going to be tough, everyone is agreed on that. What nobody can quite decide though, is what the surface of the course in St-Wendel, Germany will actually be like. With the current partly cloudy weather though, meaning nighttime temperatures are dipping below freezing, no one knows if it will be muddy or frozen.
One thing is (virtually) certain: we will not see a repeat of the very cold, snowy conditions that were experienced in 2005, the last time the Worlds were held on this course. That time Sven Nys got away from his compatriot rivals on the final lap to take his one and only rainbow jersey so far, while Hanka Kupfernagel soloed to the third of her four titles to date.
Most riders have already made their way down to the course, in the west of the Germany, not far from the border with Luxembourg, and many will have spent several hours today riding the course. Currently they are finding mud, and plenty of it; an extra cold night or two though, could potentially change the conditions completely.
Friday’s minimum nighttime temperature is currently forecast to be as low as -3ºC (26ºF), and drop to -4ºC (24ºF) on Saturday night. Depending on how long the temperature drops that low, the course may or may not freeze; the daytime temperatures are not forecast to rise much above freezing though, so if there is a hard frost it may not have time to thaw in time for the race; a stiff north easterly breeze will take the temperatures even lower.
This issue is more pertinent to the Junior Men and Elite Women, whose races are scheduled to start at 11am on Saturday and Sunday respectively. Should the course freeze overnight it would have less time to thaw for these races than for the Under 23 and Elite Men, whose races will both start at 2pm.
The 2.8km course is almost entirely over fields and off road paths, with just a few isolated patches of asphalt. The big obstacles consist of a set of hurdles and some steps, aside from all the natural lumps, bumps and off camber sections, but unusual feature is that it starts and finishes on the tartan surface of an athletics track.
According to official course statistics riders will spend 40% of the time climbing, 25% of the time descending and the other 35% on the flat.
Which riders will benefit from ice or mud?
Currently, Belgian national coach Rudy De Bie likes what he sees, having ridden the course himself.
“There is a lot of water,” he told Het Laatste Nieuws. “That makes it pretty muddy in some places; it’s really great for us Belgians as it is now.”
He does concede that, with the forecast weather conditions in the next few days set to turn much colder, conditions on race day might well be very different.
“It will probably be different though,” he said, “for the weekend they have forecast very hard frosts. If that happens it will be in an entirely different state. On a hard circuit we can do fast races, but if the sun comes out it could be pretty slippery in the afternoon; we’ll have to wait and see.”
Certainly the Belgian’s like a muddy course, but many of them go very well over frozen ground as well. Nys can win on virtually any surface, and is widely regarded as the king of ice, Tom Meeusen proved himself over the icy World Cup course in Kalmthout, Belgium in December, while Kevin Pauwels actually prefers things when it’s not too muddy. The only one of the Belgian favourites who might not enjoy it if the ground is frozen is Niels Albert; the 2009 champion was criticised by many in the Belgian media in the middle of the season for showing fear over the ice. He has since won a number of frozen races though, proving that he is improving in that respect.
One rider who won’t mind if the ground is hard is defending champion Zdenek Stybar. The Czech was brought up riding motocross and loves fast courses, and the way he seemed to tire in the latter stages of the muddy World Cup race in Hoogerheide, Netherlands last weekend, could well mean that he hopes it freezes.
Whatever the weather it still looks like Stybar vs the Belgians.
Similarly the women’s race should be dominated by the same top riders whatever the conditions. Local favourite Kupfernagel will hope that it freezes so she can apply her massive time trialling engine but, as last weeks second place in Hoogerheide shows, she’s not afraid of the mud. The rider who would prefer it muddy more than most is probably Katie Compton; a perfect record in the World Cups she entered make the US champion the outstanding favourite, but for Compton the muddier the better.
The rider that doesn’t really care what the conditions hold is defending champion Marianne Vos. The Dutchwoman is equally at home over mud or ice and, if the race gets tactical she is virtually unbeatable in the sprint.