Philippe Gilbert (Omega Pharma-Lotto) is set to start his first Tour de France since 2008 this weekend and the rider, who is now becoming known as the “Little Cannibal”, is predicted great success by the media in his home country. Not only is Gilbert predicted to take the first ever Tour stage victory of his career, the Belgian media expects him to take three, or maybe four, inside the first week.
“If [Omega Pharma-Lotto] performs,” thinks Sporza commentator and journalist Michel Wuyts, “Philippe Gilbert may win three stages in the first week.
“The first stage to Mont des Alouettes,” he explained, “the fourth stage to the Mur de Bretagne, and at the end of the week you have Super Besse where Gilbert could take it.”
Het Laatste Nieuws is even more optimistic on behalf of Belgium’s current biggest star, adding that the sixth stage between Dinan and Lisieux could be good for Gilbert, due to the climb inside the final 3km.
While this expectation may be wildly optimistic on Gilbert’s behalf, it may not be entirely beyond the realms of possibility. Certainly there will be a great number of riders out to stop Gilbert, but the same is true of the Ardennes and Autumn Classics, and he manages to take multiple victories there.
Gilbert has a fine, recent track record of taking two, three and even four big, prestigious races in quick succession. In 2009 he won the Coppa Sabatini, Paris-Tours, the Giro del Piemonte, and the Giro di Lombardia in the space of ten days; this April he won the Brabantse Pijl, the Amstel Gold Race, la Flèche Wallonne, and Liège-Bastogne-Liège inside a similar period; every single time he has had the World’s best riders out to stop him, and every time he has come out on top.
After a break, where much of the peloton was racing the Giro d’Italia, Gilbert has come back winning again, taking the Tour of Belgium, the Ster ZLM Toer, and the Belgian championships. The 28-year-old has seemingly been able to win any race he wants this year, with the only target he has missed being the Milano-Sanremo; ironically the race he professes to want to win most.
The big thing that may stand in Gilbert’s way could well be his own team though. During the spring and autumn races the Omega Pharma-Lotto boys have been riding 100% for his benefit, including Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Andre Greipel. With Van Den Broeck aiming for the podium though, and Greipel chasing stages of his own, Gilbert is unlikely to enjoy the team’s undivided loyalty.
Provided there are plenty of other teams out there – whose own riders fancy the stage wins – to chase down breaks and keep the peloton together, Gilbert may well not need his own quite so much.
Stage wins on the cards and maybe jerseys too
Should anything like the expected success come Gilbert’s way, so will a number of jerseys, which may see him change out of his Belgian champion’s driekleur on a number of occasions. The winner of the first stage will automatically be awarded the yellow and polka-dot jerseys, and probably the green one too (although he will obviously only be able to wear one the next day), and how long he could hold on to those is also a matter for speculation.
“The yellow?” said Wuyts. “He would have that jersey anyway after the first stage; but one day later there is a team time trial on the menu. The Omega Pharma-Lotto team will have to come out of its corner strongly if it wants to keep the jersey there.”
The Belgian team will want to go as well as possible here anyway, in the interests of the overall ambitions of Van Den Broeck. Even with the improved team time trialling prowess displayed by its fourth place in the first stage of the Giro d’Italia though, Gilbert will likely see his yellow jersey go.
All may not be lost though, with a possible jersey win in Paris a possibility.
“It may be wishful thinking,” said Wuyts, “but why couldn’t Gilbert go for green after that first week. If he has the jersey then, he can. Who knows?”
Wuyts does concede that with Van Den Broeck and Greipel also to think of, it may be a little optimistic though.
“All three are leaders in the same team,” he conceded,” which might be too much.”
Although Gilbert will, in all likelihood, not win all four of the stages identified, he will almost certainly place very well in them, earning himself a number of points. With intermediate sprints scoring far more points than in previous years, he may be able to steal the march on the sprinters who are concentrating more on stage victories later on in the race.
It is one of the proudest moments of a Belgian rider’s life to wear the driekleur in the Tour de France, how much we will see of Philippe Gilbert’s past the first day remains to be seen.