Fifteen points separate the two in fight for green; other classifications decided
Mark Cavendish currently leads the sprinters' classification with 280 points over José Joaquin Rojas, who has 265. With all other jerseys decided, this is the last classification fight in this year's Tour de France. Cavendish has the edge, having the experience of two Champs Elysées wins (2009 and 2010). Rojas will try to make most of the changed rules and the 20 points available at the intermediate sprint, coming in the third of the seven finishing laps on the Champs.
Cavendish's win would mean overcoming a 40-point subtraction, after missing the time cut twice in the Alps. Both times the group was large enough that the commissaires decided to leave everybody in the race. Rojas was once outside the time limit and had 20 points subtracted off his account.
With 40 points still given out, Philippe Gilbert could theoretically move up into second place, as winning the intermediate sprint and finishing second on the Champs would give him 267 points (with Rojas not gaining points). This seems as likely as Cavendish missing today's time cut.
The battle will be between Cavendish and Rojas as well as between HTC Highroad and Movistar. The Spanish team was trying to ride Cavendish outside the time limit in the mountains, a strategy that worked on stage 18 to Galibier Serre-Chevalier. With the group containing more than 80 riders, the Tour organizers decided to leave them all in the race. On the next day, up to Alpe d'Huez, Rojas himself was in the gruppetto that missed the time cut.
Rojas will try to make most of the intermediate sprint, as he is unlikely a match for Cavendish and HTC Highroad on the final sprint. But the Manxman won't just sit back and watch when the 20 points are given out during the race and the case for Rojas looks very complicated.
As for the rest, as long as the other jersey wearers stay accident free, they have safely secured their prizes.
Yellow Jersey - maillot jaune: Cadel Evans has a lead of 1'34 over Andy Schleck and tonight will become the first Australian to win the Tour de France. With a gap that large it is tradition that there won't be any challenges (let alone that it would be impossible to create such a gap into Paris). All Evans has to do is stay upright.
Mountain jersey - maillot à pois rouges
Samuel Sánchez takes home the jersey for Euskaltel-Euskadi, which had an extraordinary Tour de France. A stage win in Luz Ardiden, the sixth place overall and the climber's jersey is more than the Basque outfit could have dreamed off at the start. Sánchez has a ten-point lead over Andy Schleck and no mountain will open up in front of him before Paris. All Sánchez has to do? See Evans.
Young rider's jersey - maillot blanc
Pierre Rolland took the jersey with his win in Alpe d'Huez, then defended himself well against the better time trialer Rein Taaramäe. The reward is a 46-second lead into Paris.
No jerseys are given here, but the following are also decided:
Teams classification
Garmin-Cervélo leads Leopard Trek by 11'04 to win the team prize. Even without that the team would have considered the 2011 Tour de France a success. The win in the team time trial along with the stage victories of Tyler Farrar and Thor Hushovd (twice) made it worth the trip.
Combative Prize - coureur super-combatif
Jérémy Roy was elected the most combative rider for the 2011 Tour. The Frenchman was in five breakaways, spending over 700 of the 3,430.5 kilometers outside the peloton.
Last Place - Lanterne rouge
Fabio Sabanti has the honor of being the last-placed rider, with an advantage of 3'08 over Andrey Amador. Sabanti just has to look out that Amador doesn't hide during the race - a tactic that Elia Favilli (unsuccessfully) tried in the Giro d'Italia against Jos van Emden.
So for the most part, let the celebrations begin as the bunch heads off from Créteil for the final 95 kilometers. Have the champagne and enjoy the fun the riders are making in the first few kilometers. But do keep an eye out on Cavendish and Rojas. Some may still be serious out there today!